Ronald Giere Memorial Lecture

An evening with Roman Frigg

"Cyclones, Forecasts, and Uncertainty: How Model-Ensembles Can Be an Effective Guide to Anticipatory Action"

Many important decisions are based on models of physical systems. However, these models are subject to uncertainty, which is reflected in the use of model ensembles in decision-making processes. We present an approach that shows how model ensembles can be employed to build a confidence-sensitive decision support tool for anticipatory humanitarian action. Comparing the level and timing of alerts triggered for Cyclone Kenneth (Mozambique, 2019) with those recommended by the tool shows that a decision-maker would have acted earlier had they used the tool, considerably reducing the cyclone's impact. 

Presented by: Roman Frigg, PHD Department of Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method, London School of Economics
Commentator: Samuel Fletcher, Professor of Philosophy of Physics, Oxford University

Contact

Keely Khoury (612-625-6635 or [email protected])