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Kavanaugh dispute energizes Republican base

Republican enthusiasm spurred on by reaction to nomination drama

MINNEAPOLIS -- Judge Brett Kavanaugh will soon join the Supreme Court, but the controversy surrounding his nomination may have a lasting effect on the political landscape.

National polls show a recent boost in Republican enthusiasm in the wake of the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings.

"Now the real question is, will this be around on Election Day?" political analyst Steven Schier told KARE.

"Is it a short-term blip, or is it a long-term trend? If it’s a long-term trend it’s a real problem for Democrats."

The nation is clearly divided over Christine Blasey Ford's accusation of attempted sexual assault against Kavanaugh, which dates to a gathering of high school students in the early 1980s in Maryland. Ford's testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee September 27 and Kavanaugh's denial the same day captivated and riled the nation.

At his campaign rally in Rochester Thursday, President Trump predicted the episode will backfire on Democrats at the ballot box.

"Democrats have been trying to destroy Judge Brett Kavanaugh," Trump declared.

"Their rage-fueled resistance is starting to backfire at a level that nobody has ever seen before!"

Schier, a retired political science professor at Carleton College, said the Kavanaugh factor will vary from state to state. He pointed out that Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, a North Dakota Democrat, is taking more of a risk by voting against Kavanaugh because North Dakotans support his nomination.

"Red state Democrat senate candidates are the ones that are at risk here."

Trump himself is all it takes to energize the Democrat base.

"Democrats have long been energized about the 2018 midterm elections because of President Trump, and so the nomination of Judge Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court added to that enthusiasm," Kathryn Pearson, a University of Minnesota political science professor, told KARE.

"With Republicans, on the other hand, we’re seeing a huge jump in enthusiasm recently."

Pearson said Republican enthusiasm now matches that of the Democrats, which is the recipe for a high voter turnout in November.

She said it's harder to predict how the Kavanaugh dispute will play as an issue for voters a month from now, especially those voters in the middle.

"More voters, in the aftermath of last Thursday’s testimony by both, more voters believed Ford than believed Kavanaugh," Pearson explained. "And so, I think it really remains to be seen what the effect is on independent voters."

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