"Office Hours" Podcast
Welcome to Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours, a podcast featuring University of Minnesota economists and their research. Each episode, join host Chris Farrell in conversation with Minnesota economists, exploring economic topics that impact our daily lives. We’ll highlight how careful economic research can improve our understanding of major societal challenges and inform policy decisions on topics ranging from taxes to international trade, minimum wage to inequality.
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Host: Chris Farrell, senior economics contributor at Minnesota Public Radio
Credits: Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours is a production of Matriarch Digital Media. Executive Producer Twila Dang. Producer and Editor Beth K. Gibbs. Music by Bob Bradley.
Season 3
In this special series of the podcast, we're focusing on the policy priorities of the second Trump administration, and how research can inform our understanding of our rapidly changing economic environment.
Health policy sits at the center for much of America’s recent political gridlock, including the current shutdown of the federal government. The ongoing debate raises urgent questions about health care access, prevention, and the long-term public health for millions who rely on the Affordable Care Act’s individual marketplaces for coverage.
In this episode of Heller Hurwicz Office Hours, Assistant Professor Anran Li joins us to discuss insights from her new paper, “Commitment, Competition, and Preventive Care Provision.” We explore how competition among insurers, shifting policy incentives, and reduced coverage can alter investments in preventive care and what these dynamics reveal about the broader economic trade-offs of health reform under the Trump administration.
The effects of the new tariffs imposed by President Trump have already started to emerge in revenue, consumer prices and in the labor and financial markets, but much of the impact remains to be seen in the economic data. While the President’s stated aims for his aggressive trade policy were protecting American industry and rebalancing global trade relationships, one issue that might be overlooked in the current strategy is how tariffs disproportionately impact IP-driven businesses and brand name companies.
In this Office Hours episode, we explore how to quantify which products, firms, and supply chains feel the sharpest tariff impact. Department Chair Professor Tom Holmes walks us through a new framework for assessing tariff exposure. Drawing on his work-in-progress, “Tariffs for Tax Revenue: Brands, Distribution Chains, and Tariff Choice,” we explore what it means to “pluck the goose” of global trade and what it takes to walk the line between efficiency and outrage.
The recent passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act by a Republican-controlled Congress has heightened concerns about the rising national debt and what it could mean for America’s long-term fiscal health. As of the end of 2024, the Congressional Budget Office projected that U.S. government debt held by the public stood at around 97% of GDP and would climb to 117% by 2034, an amount greater than at any point in the nation’s history. The new law added another 9.5 percentage points to that estimate. This rise in debt levels is set to occur against the backdrop of an aging population, rising inequality, and slower workforce growth. In this episode, Assistant Professor Hannes Malmberg explores what these changes could mean for the nation’s fiscal sustainability – and how current policies are setting us up for resilience or risk.
Read the transcript for season 3, episode 6
Watch the video recording of season 3, episode 6
Read the paper presented at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole conference
Since January 2025, the Trump administration has been leveraging federal power and resources to systematically dismantle the nation's tools to address climate change. Among other actions, the President has defunded climate related research, withdrawn from international agreements to reduce global warming, retracted clean energy initiatives and doubled down on fossil fuels to meet the nation's growing energy needs. In this conversation, economist Bob Litterman will share his perspective on what these changes could mean for identifying and mitigating climate related economic and financial risks.
While recent talks between the United States and China have lessened the prospect of a total halt in trade between the world’s two biggest economies, the second Trump administration’s escalated confrontations with China are already having an impact. In this conversation, economist Kjetil Storesletten will share his perspective on how China is navigating the realignment of global trade relationships.
Consumer frustration with high inflation after the pandemic was a big factor in the presidential election. The Federal Reserve's main tool to combat this inflation was higher interest rates, otherwise known as tightening monetary policy. While this approach has brought down inflation from the historic highs of 2022, it still hasn't hit their target of 2%. In this conversation, economist VV Chari will share his perspective on learnings from the last couple of years about inflation and monetary policy and the potential impact of President Trump's approach.
The ability for a nation's central bank to operate independently is a core tenet of modern monetary policy. Independence means the central bank can focus on their mission without undue political influence. President Trump is a regular critic and has pushed to have more control of the U.S.' central bank, the Federal Reserve. In this conversation, we will speak with two former top leaders of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, former President, Gary Stern, and former Director of Research, Art Rolnick, who will share their perspectives on the President’s relationship with the Federal Reserve and how some of the changes he is advocating for could play out for the United States.
The turn away from free trade has been a major shift. In this conversation, economists Tim Kehoe and Chris Phelan will share differing perspectives on how the President’s approach to trade policy is playing out for the United States.
Season 2
Economist Bob Litterman is well known for his risk management career on Wall Street. He has been at the forefront of using economics and a risk management framework to develop strategies that would minimize future global climate change by creating appropriate incentives to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
50% of seniors get their healthcare through Medicare Advantage plans, yet the growth of Medicare Advantage has been controversial. Among the topics discussed about Medicare Advantage plans, is whether these plans are overpaid based on the level of benefits they provide to plan members. Economists Amil Petrin and Keaton Miller also calculate the impact of lower payments to Medicare Advantage providers on plan members.
Trust is an important concept in economics. Economist Chris Phelan develops a theoretical model for better understanding the impact of trustworthy and opportunistic actions by governments in less developed countries. We also discussed the role of trust and understanding the effectiveness or ineffectiveness of the Federal Reserve Board's monetary policy.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that in 2018, little more than 1/3, of business income wasn't reported in tax filings. That's roughly $700 billion. Policymakers have long railed against the tax gap with little success. Economist Ellen McGrattan lays out a dynamic theory of business taxation, and she uses the framework to tease out the impact of two potential reforms, higher business taxes, and greater tax enforcement.
The federal income tax code is progressive. Now, we all know that, but what about state and local taxes? How progressive are they? And how much does progressivity vary among the states? Economist Jonathan Heathcoat investigates: "We hear this term a lot progressivity in the tax code. But what does it actually mean? Proportional tax would be if I double your income, I doubled the amount of taxes you pay. A tax would be progressive if when you double your income, you pay more than twice as much in taxes. And then the opposite would be a regressive tax code: I double your income, you pay less than twice as much taxes."
UMN Economics Professor Jo Mullins says that cash assistance programs play a crucial role for poor households with children. "We know that from a pure accounting sense, if we look at what households in the United States get from Temporary Assistance to Needy Families, i.e. cash welfare, what they get from food stamps, what they get from the Earned Income Tax Credit, and more recently, the Child Tax Credit. You know, if you add all those things up, we know that they play a significant role in poverty reduction and the rates of exposure of children to what official statistics would call the poverty rate."
In late 2023, the Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice revised their Merger Guidelines, and lowered the threshold for labor market concentration, making clear that the labor market concentration is going to be an important factor in antitrust policy going forward. Hear University of Minnesota economist Kyle Herkenhoff discuss the history of M&A policy and the new 2023 Merger Guidelines.
According to Herkenhoff and his co-author's research, roughly 10% of markets in the U.S. are “single-firm markets,” meaning one company controls the jobs in that region. Additionally, in those single-firm markets, they find that workers are paid roughly 30% less than competitive wages and that monopsony power is pervasive across American industries and cities.
"We made a lot of progress in, you know, gender wage gaps and earnings gap, and so on, throughout the 70’s, the 80’s and early 90’s," says Federal Reserve Bank Researcher Anusha Nath. "And after all the policy changes that were made … we still see a huge wage gap, whether it's by gender, or whether it's by race. So even today, some of the latest numbers suggest that women earn 82 cents to $1 that men earn, if you look at the Black-white gap, it's 87 cents to $1, for Blacks versus whites."
Hear UMN Economics Professor Hannes Malmberg share why education/skills are widely acknowledged as central for economic development, yet their precise role remains uncertain.
"What we're trying to look at is the interconnection between how much does the lack of big firms connect to the lack of education in a skilled workforce," says Malmberg. "We often assume that economic growth is a well defined concept, you know? Some countries are rich, some countries are poor. I think it's an assumption you should question. And you should look at the data."
Join us for the first episode of our new season of Office Hours. Hear HHEI Director Kjetil Storesletten discuss why inequality has increased since the 1970s.
"We worry that some people are getting a rotten deal," says UMN Economics Professor Kjetil Storesletten. "And there is perhaps a trade off between what is fair and what is efficient … we've seen the biggest increase in inequality in the century over the last [few] decades, and that's concerning to many."
Season 1
The economic transformation of China from a poor and centrally planned country in the 1970s to a middle-income market economy today is an amazing story. Kjetil Storesletten lays out the remarkable scale of change. Among the topics he addresses: What was the secret sauce that the Chinese leadership used to deliver rapid growth? Why was the growth broad based and not concentrated in the richer coastal areas? What is the way forward for China now?
Listen to Episode 13: Kjetil Storesletten on China's Economic Transformation
The last few years have seen a renewed interest in wealth taxation. What is a wealth tax, and how does a wealth tax differ from taxes on capital income? Fatih Guvenen discusses research that highlights when a wealth tax, designed to encourage entrepreneurship and risk taking, is preferable to the better-known capital income tax.
In this episode, Mariacristina De Nardi discusses how longer lives and unpredictable health make our elder years an economic puzzle. Among the puzzles economists are trying to work out: why do many couples keep putting money away long into retirement? Do we enjoy our money less as we age? She also looks at what public policies might be particularly effective at lowering the degree of financial uncertainty in retirement.
Listen to Episode 11: Mariacristina De Nardi on the Economic Puzzle of Aging
Throughout his career, Art Rolnick has been a researcher and an advocate for government to make large investments in early childhood education for children living in families with low and unstable incomes. The research shows that by investing in quality early childhood education for at-risk children, individuals and society can reap extraordinarily high economic returns, benefits that are low-risk and long-lived.
Listen to Episode 10: Art Rolnick on Early Childhood Education here
In this episode, Joseph Mullins talks about his research from the paper, “Firms’ Choices of Wage-Setting Protocols.” The research project examines what drives differences in firms' willingness to bargain and renegotiate wages. Among the results: bargaining does contribute to the overall gender gap in wages. But a policy that prohibits bargaining to close wage gaps would lower wages for all workers, leading to overall welfare losses.
Listen to Episode 9: Jo Mullins on Bargaining and Negotiating Wages here
The global population is aging. Rising longevity is a powerful demographic force shaping the global economy in many different ways. In this conversation, economist Hannes Malmberg takes a deep dive into how global aging could impact the long-term direction of interest rates.
Listen to Episode 8: Hannes Malmberg on the Aging Global Population
Gary Stern, former chief executive of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank and co-author of Too Big To Fail, joins the podcast to talk the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, and why restoring market discipline on banks is the first step to making banks and regulators accountable to bank failures. With discussion of the global credit crunch and great recession contextualized in the present day, this episode stresses that there has to be a better way to regulate the banking industry, and avoid these periodic stressful episodes of bank failures, government rescues and economic turmoil.
Sovereign debt defaults have long threatened the stability and growth of economies. Remember the Latin American debt crisis of the early 1980s? How about Europe in the 2010s? Manuel Amador and Christopher Phelan discuss their research into sovereign debt defaults, including the role of reputation.
Listen to Episode 6: Manuel Amador and Christopher Phalen on Sovereign Debt
The trend toward rising income inequality in the U.S. has been studied and disputed among economists. Fatih Guvenen advances the scholarly discussion by exploring the concept of measuring inflation-adjusted lifetime inequality over six decades. One stark takeaway: the widespread stagnation of living standards of many American men. We also look at some preliminary data on the experience of younger groups who entered the labor market after 1983.
Have you heard of the term “monopsony”? Kyle Herkenhoff explains what monopsony is and how it is measured. His research measures local labor market concentration and its downward trend in the U.S. over the last 40 years – and its link to monopsony. We'll also discuss the Department of Justice push to apply merger guidelines to monopsony, and not just monopoly.
Listen to Episode 4: Kyle Herkenhoff on Monopsony and Labor Market Concentration
Link to the transcript for Episode 4
In this episode, Tim Kehoe discusses the impact of liberalizing international trade and foreign investment on the economy. He lays out why he believes globalization has been a source of productivity increases and the spread of economic progress throughout the world. He also calls for greater action by economists to pay more attention to the negative consequences of globalization and on policies to offset the adverse consequences.
In this episode Anusha Nath reviews the initial results from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis’ long-term minimum wage study. The economic impact of raising the minimum wage is controversial. This project is designed to assess over time the labor market effects of Minneapolis’ and St. Paul's minimum wage increases announced in 2017 and 2018, respectively.
How can economic research inform better policies? How should we define good public policy? What trade-offs are inevitable in any policy decision? V.V. Chari, the founding director of the Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute, discusses his goal for the podcast episodes to address questions like these. He also addresses what makes for good economic research.
Listen to Episode I: V.V. Chari on the Role of Economists in Today's World
Lecture Series
Outside of interviews with faculty, the Office Hours Podcast publishes various episodes produced from lectures hosted by HHEI and the Department of Economics.
LEXTURE: Taxes, Tariffs and Trade: Economic Policy in the Once and Future Administration
Economic Policy was a hot topic in the recent presidential campaign. Please join us for an impromptu and informal discussion on the possible economic policies of the incoming Trump administration, focusing on tariffs, taxes, and trade. Our discussion features Professors Timothy Kehoe and Christopher Phelan from the Department of Economics.
LECTURE: Who cheats on taxes? Understanding the U.S. Tax Gap
Americans underpay federal taxes every year. Underpayments are seen across business types, industries, taxpayer ages, and income groups. But some groups are less compliant than others. The presentation will break out these groups and discuss how the IRS estimates the tax gap, possible limitations of these estimates, implications for GDP, and the puzzle of stable compliance rates despite falling audit rates.
In late 2023, the Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice revised their Merger Guidelines, and lowered the threshold for labor market concentration, making clear that the labor market concentration is going to be an important factor in antitrust policy going forward. University of Minnesota economist Kyle Herkenhoff and Eric Posner, University of Chicago professor and legal scholar, used economic modeling to inform policy development related to the worker welfare implications of the new 2023 Merger Guidelines.
LECTURE: Climate Policy in Economics with Per Krusell
Scientists agree: global warming is the result of CO2 produced by human activity, and urgent action is needed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. What isn't clear is how this should be done in a global market economy. Fortunately, economic analysis can be used to figure out what policies have the best chance of success given economic and political realities. Tune in to hear Per Krusell, Professor at the Institute for Economic Studies at Stockholm University, discuss the economic approach to reducing carbon emissions. Originally recorded on September 22, 2022.
LECTURE: Does the Fed need to cause a recession to reduce inflation?
In hindsight, Larry Summers' 2022 prediction that "we need five years of unemployment above 5 percent to contain inflation" seems wrong. But why? Tom Sargent argued that inflation and wage growth is determined by the expectations of future inflation. What's the role of monetary and fiscal policy for shaping these expectations? Can we add this period of decreasing inflation as one of Sargent’s Ends of Big Inflations?
LECTURE: U.S. Debt Ceiling: Reining in the Leviathan or Mutually Assured Destruction?
Raise the debt ceiling or pay the bills? Economists Chris Phelan, Marco Bassetto and Cristina Arellano discuss the looming debt limit deadline, and what the risk of default may mean for the US economy. Recording sourced from our webinar held on May 24, 2023.
LECTURE: Here we go again? Silicon Valley Bank and the current banking crisis
Defund the banks? The recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Sovereign Bank, and internationally, Credit Suisse, have brought new focus on banks, their ability to pay depositors, and the role of central banks in regulating and ensuring the stability of our financial system. In this conversation, economists V.V. Chari, Terry Fitzgerald, and Christopher Phelan discuss the current banking crisis and what policies need to change going forward. Recorded at event on March 29, 2023.